Technical and Economic Feasibility of a Nuclear-Integrated, Direct-Air-Capture Power-to-Liquids System for Drop-In Synthetic Fuels

Abstract

Aviation, shipping, defense logistics, and heavy transport require energy-dense liquid hydrocarbons that are difficult to electrify. Project Prometheus is a 100,000 barrel-per-day power-to-liquids concept that synthesizes drop-in fuels — sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel, marine distillate, and naphtha — from atmospheric CO₂, water, and clean firm electricity via Direct Air Capture, solid-oxide electrolysis, reverse water-gas shift, and cobalt Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. This paper presents a first-principles mass-and-energy balance, a chemistry-derived product slate, a well-to-wake lifecycle carbon model, and a Monte-Carlo techno-economic analysis. Every subsystem is technically feasible and commercially precedented (TRL 6–9); the integrated balance closes at 52.6% electricity-to-fuel (LHV) efficiency and 93.1% capture-to-fuel carbon efficiency. Gigascale economics are not yet bankable: the credit-adjusted P50 levelized cost of fuel is $13.03/gal with a near-zero probability of positive net present value under current input ranges, dominated by the price of clean firm electricity. Gigascale is therefore framed as a risk-retirement agenda, with a $2.85M, 10 BPD pilot identified as the correct unit of de-risking. The contribution is a transparent, reproducible, end-to-end model — including the assumptions that do not yet close.

Keywords: power-to-liquids; e-fuels; direct air capture; solid-oxide electrolysis; Fischer-Tropsch; sustainable aviation fuel; techno-economic analysis; lifecycle carbon; artificial photosynthesis.